No Evidence Canada Cut Potato Exports to the United States or Struck USD 1.6 Billion Trade Deal with Asia, Claims Debunked

Canadians awaiting clarity on trade relations with the United States are being misled by false online claims suggesting Canada has slashed potato exports south of the border and signed a USD 1.6-billion deal with “Asian markets.”

The Claim

A post on Aug. 6, shared widely on X (formerly Twitter), alleged: “Canada Cuts Potato Exports to U.S. – PM Carney signs USD 1.6B deal with Asia. In just four months, over 140,000 tons of Canadian potatoes have disappeared from U.S. shelves.”

The claim spread across Facebook, Threads, and TikTok, where some users tied a supposed 41% decline in exports to 35% tariffs allegedly imposed on Canadian potatoes by Washington. Several YouTube channels also published videos styled as news reports, amassing hundreds of thousands of views.

The Facts

No evidence supports the existence of a USD 1.6-billion potato trade deal with Asia, nor of a dramatic shift in exports to Asian markets.

Stéphanie Blais, spokeswoman for Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada:

"Canadian agri-food exporters base their decisions on market needs and dynamics, and available data for 2025 does not show an overall increase in shipments to Asian markets."

Canada has been in talks for a free trade deal with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), a 10-member bloc that includes Indonesia and the Philippines, since 2021, but negotiations are ongoing.

Some videos mention Indonesia and the Philippines as new destinations. Indeed, in December, a delegation of Prince Edward Island potato growers visited both countries to promote exports. Around the same time, Canada concluded negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with Indonesia, expected to be signed later this year. However, no financial figure is tied to the deal.

According to the Prime Minister’s Office, overall merchandise trade between Canada and Indonesia totaled USD 5.1 billion in 2023. In 2025, Indonesia imported just 980 tonnes of Canadian potatoes, shipped in April, Statistics Canada data shows.

No Big Cuts to U.S. Exports

Despite online claims, the U.S. remains by far the largest market for Canadian potatoes, receiving 96% of seed, 93% of fresh, and 91% of French fry exports in the 2023/2024 production year.

Exports did fall between the first and second quarters of 2025, but officials say such seasonal fluctuations are common.

Stéphanie Blais, spokeswoman for Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada:

"Fluctuation in trade occurs for various reasons. More time is needed to understand the true impact of the U.S. administration’s tariff policy."

From January to March, Canada exported 512,621 tonnes of potatoes to the U.S., compared to 427,467 tonnes from April to June — a drop of 85,154 tonnes, or 17%. This is well short of the 41% decline claimed on social media.

Crucially, potato exports covered under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) are not subject to the 35% tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on Aug. 1, provided they meet rules of origin requirements.

Clickbait videos

Many of the misleading videos appear on YouTube channels with names such as Economic Info, Bitcoin Timez, and U.S. Retail Check. The latter appears to have published the earliest version of the claim on July 27.

The videos often carry disclaimers that they “do not guarantee complete accuracy” and may include “altered or synthetic content.” 

This is not the first time similar false reports have circulated. The Canadian Press previously debunked AI-generated claims about a Canadian potato trade deal with Mexico.